Keynesian claims about Sequestration

Will spending cuts really government spending cuts hurt the economy?  Yet, despite what Keynesians believe the evidence doesn't support that.  From The Hill newspaper:

A sharp decline in defense spending led the U.S. economy to contract at the end of 2012 by 0.1 percent, but it did little to change the fight over further cuts to the Pentagon set to begin in March. 

The White House used the report to lash out at Republicans, arguing the GOP should agree to a deficit-reduction package that includes spending cuts and tax hikes to replace the $85 billion in scheduled cuts known as sequestration. 

“Our economy is facing a major headwinds, and that's Republicans in Congress,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said. “It can't be 'we'll let sequester kick in because we insist tax loopholes remain in place for corporate jet-owners.' ” 

Republicans counter that they agreed to raise tax rates on households with annual income above $450,000 in a deal earlier this month and that they will not raise taxes again. Instead, they say President Obama must accept spending cuts. . . . .

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Millionaire athletes fleeing California's taxes

So Obama doesn't think that taxes effect behavior?  Well, here are some people who are voting with their feet.  The higher federal tax rate makes people even more sensitive to the changes in state taxes.  From Fox News:

The Golden State's new 13.3 percent income tax on top earners prompted golfer Phil Mickelson to say earlier this month he was considering a move, and according to the accountants who advise millionaire athletes, he was just saying what a lot of jocks were already thinking. Federal taxes on the top income bracket just rose by roughly 5 percent, and, while there's nothing rich athletes can do about that, they are paying attention to which states dip into their game checks — and how much they take. 

“They’re going to have an exodus of people,” said John Karaffa, president of ProSport CPA, a Virginia-based firm that represents nearly 300 professional athletes, primarily in basketball and football. “I think they’ll see some [leave California] for sure. They were already a very high tax state and it’s getting to a point where folks have to make a business decision as well as a lifestyle decision.” . . . .

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Technology helping to reduce the number of people going to law school

If this is true, it bodes well for those who think that fewer lawyers is a good thing and it is a pattern that might continue to accelerate.  From the NY Times:

The drop in applications is widely viewed as directly linked to perceptions of the declining job market. Many of the reasons that law jobs are disappearing are similar to those for disruptions in other knowledge-based professions, namely the growth of the Internet. Research is faster and easier, requiring fewer lawyers, and is being outsourced to less expensive locales, including West Virginia and overseas. 

In addition, legal forms are now available online and require training well below a lawyer’s to fill them out. . . . .

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"More housework, less sex for married men: study"?

I would appreciate some theory for this finding.  I think that there is a real endogeniety problem here.  Something else is different in those households where men do more housework.

His study, "Egalitarianism, Housework, and Sexual Frequency in Marriage," looks at straight married couples in the United States, and was based on data from the National Survey of Families and Households.
The study was co-authored by University of Washington sociologist Julie Brines and doctoral candidate Katrina Leupp.
Men in the study reported having had sex an average of 5.2 times in the month prior to the survey, while women reported 5.6.
But both men and women in couples with more traditional household labor divisions said they had more sex. . . .

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South Dakota moving towards letting towards letting teachers carry concealed handguns at school

The vote in the state House is pretty overwhelming.  Again, the arguments against this law are hypotheticals and they can never actually point to such cases actually occurring in the places that have allowed permitted concealed handguns on school property.

A bill that would allow school districts to arm teachers and other personnel with guns was approved Tuesday by the South Dakota House after supporters said it could make would-be attackers think twice about entering a school building.  

Representatives voted 42-17 to send the measure to the Senate for further debate.  

Supporters said school boards, particularly in rural areas where no law enforcement officers are stationed in school buildings, need the option of arming teachers, administrators or volunteers to protect against attacks like last month's school shooting in Connecticut. Opponents countered that arming teachers could make schools more dangerous because it could lead to accidental shootings and put guns in the hands of people who are trained to teach, not shoot people.  

The bill's main sponsor, Rep. Scott Craig, R-Rapid City, said the measure leaves it up to each school board to decide whether to train and arm teachers and others. Schools are now inviting targets for potential mass murderers because they are considered gun-free zones, he said.  

"The possibility of an armed presence in any of our schools is a deterrent," Craig said. . . .

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Sen. Patrick Leahy (Vt.) signals push for so-call "universal" background checks

Leahy's comments show where the big battle is going to take place politically.

Leahy said he will be pushing for an expansion of background checks on all gun sales, a proposal that appears to have bipartisan support in the Senate and broader appeal to the American public in the wake of the Newtown, Conn., shooting.
The Vermont Democrat, though, pointedly didn’t mention the assault weapons ban.
“I just don’t understand how anyone could be against universal background checks,” Leahy said in an interview. “We need to close the loopholes” for private gun sales or weapon purchases at gun shows. . . .

Of course, there are strong arguments against these background checks and also here.  The New York Times has this claim:

A gun bill that is limited to background checks, however, still remains a strong possibility in Congress this year, if the Republican leadership of the House would bring such a measure on the floor. “I was a co-sponsor of a conceal carry bill in Nebraska that had a significant background check component,” said Senator Deb Fischer, a newly elected Republican from Nebraska. . . . .

The Hill Newspaper has this:

A bipartisan group of senators is working on a proposal to strengthen background checks on gun purchasers.
The coalition of lawmakers includes Republican Sens. Tom Coburn (Okla.), and Mark Kirk (Ill.) and Democrats Charles Schumer (N.Y.) and Joe Manchin (W. Va.), according to USA Today, which first reported the talks.
The senators have not disclosed the reforms they are considering, but Coburn said the group is working to ensure that firearms remain out of the hands of those who “are a danger to themselves and other people,” according to the report.“I believe the mentally ill should never be able to get a gun, I believe criminals should never be able to get a gun," Coburn told USA Today. "There's nothing wrong with updating what we're doing to try to make that more effective." . . . . 

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Mother with Pistol Saves Herself and 6 Year Old Daughter from Three Burglars in Magnolia, Texas

The original news article is available here.

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Armed Clerk Stops Attempted Armed Robbery

From Kansas City, KMBC News.

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Nine new gun control laws being proposed in California

Now that California has registered undesirable guns, they are talking about using that registrations to confiscate those guns.

AB 174 (Asm. Rob Bonta, D-Oakland)) - Would begin the conversation on ending the grandfathering of existing weapons which are now illegal to purchase but are still legal to possess. “State laws on the books currently restrict the purchase and sale of assault weapons and large capacity magazines, but almost all laws only apply on a going forward basis and exempted weapons remain on our streets,” Bonta said. “With AB 174 we will closely examine this loophole and do what’s right for the children and people of California.”

The full list is available here.

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Letter in today's WSJ on Obama's 40% claim

I wish that more of the argument had been kept about the first point. From today's Wall Street Journal:

It is disappointing to see that the Journal seems to accept President Obama's assertion that "as many as 40% of guns are purchased without a background check" ("Obama at the Gun Rack," Review & Outlook, Jan. 16). Unfortunately, the 20-year-old survey of 251 people conducted under the Clinton administration proves nothing of the sort.

Mr. Obama's presentation contained another false statement: "over the last 14 years [background checks] . . . kept 1.5 million of the wrong people from getting their hands on a gun." Well over 99% of these cases were false positives, with delays of many weeks or months. For most, it is just an inconvenience. For those who face serious threats, those delays may be the difference between life and death.

Remember the five times that the late Sen. Ted Kennedy missed flights because his name was on the "no fly" list? Mr. Obama's method of counting would be the equivalent of saying that the "no fly" list stopped five flights by terrorists. Sen. Kennedy may have been kept off those flights, but he still flew on later planes.
John R. Lott Jr.
Burke, Va.

What was cut from the letter at the end of the first paragraph:

Most of the survey covered the transfer of guns before the Brady Act went into effect in February 1994.  And the vast majority of the 40% (actually Obama rounding up from 36%) does not refer to purchases but to inheritances and gifts from family members.  Further, there were biases in the survey -- such as most respondents not realizing that indeed they had been subject to background checks when they filled out the papers with the small-scale firearms dealers.

If only considering purchases, the true figure then would more likely have been in the single digit range. 

A more detailed write up of this discussion is available here.

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While Media Matters helps lead push for gun control, Media Matters breaks gun laws to use guns for self defense

What is good for Media Matters is apparently not good for anyone else.  Apparently, non-Media Matters citizens don't deserve the same personal protection.

The former Media Matters for America staffer in charge of guarding the group’s leader not only committed multiple felonies when he carried firearms across the country but did so with the organization’s blessing and money, according to a report in the The Daily Caller Monday.
Multiple guns were reportedly bought and used to protect liberal leader David Brock. They were purchased with member money and were green-lighted by the head of the group, according to an unnamed source.
The Daily Caller reports that Brock's assistant carried a concealed Glock handgun without the proper permit.
The Glock-toting revelation flies in the face of the strong anti-gun stance Media Matters touts. . . .

Meanwhile, Mayor Bloomberg keeps armed security while he wants to take away everyone else's guns.

In the video, Bloomberg is seen surrounded by security. Mattera approaches Bloomberg and asks, “In the spirit of gun control, will you disarm your entire security team?”  

Bloomberg’s reply:  “Uh, you, we’ll get right back to you.” 

“Why can you defend yourself but not the majority of Americans?” Mattera asks as the mayor walks away. “Look at the team of security you’ve got.  And you’re an advocate for gun control?” . . .

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10 Defensive Gun Uses in December 2012 where victims had to fire a lot of shots in self defense

There are a lot of cases where victims face multiple attackers.  Here are just some of the cases from December 2012.  When I read through these cases it was clear to me that there were seven cases that involved a large number of defensive shots fired.

While it's not popular to say, gun control worked in all three of the tragedies. In each case the guns were stolen, not legally owned - showing yet again that gun control laws only affect the law abiding. Now the push for a revised Assault Weapons Ban is in full force including a law limiting magazines to 10 rounds of ammunition. Nobody could ever need more than 10 rounds, right? I mean, who was ever attacked by multiple armed people at once? 

Christmas Eve (Nevada) Police report "a multitude of gunfire" as four home invaders attack a couple and their newborn. 

December 3rd (California) A homeowner fights back as three armed men attempt a home invasion robbery. 

December 23rd (California) During a sleepover for his daughters friends, a homeowner fights back against multiple armed intruders. 

December 4th (North Carolina) Confronted by two armed robbers, store manager fights back. 

December 6th (California) An elderly man is attacked by three youths vandalizing his property. 

December 15th (Ohio) Homeowner fights back against four intruders. One intruder is killed in the gunfight. 

December 14th (Georgia) Four home invaders attack... only three leave as man defends family. 

December 19th (Texas) A couple comes home, attacked by intruders waiting inside.  

December 18th (Georgia) One of two home invaders dies jumping out of a window to escape an armed resident. 

December 3rd (Texas) God Bless Texas: Neighbor stops, handcuffs robbers at gunpoint. . . .

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Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke PSA for Milwaukee County

Here he "double downed" on CNN. Wisconsin

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"Omar Samaha and John Lott debate" Obama's call for "sweeping new gun laws"

This debate was OK, but Gregg Jarrett did an excellent job and there really wasn't much of a role for me to play here.  In case the video is visible above, the debate is also available here.

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More evidence that taxes matter: financial firms fleeing NY for Florida

This fleeing from NYC will be even worse with Obama's tax increases.  If you increase the top Federal rate from, that means that the higher NY take a greater percentage of what is remaining.  From the NY Post:

An increasing number of financial firms, especially private equity and hedge funds, are fed up with New York’s sky-high city and state tax rates and are relocating to the business-friendly climate in Florida’s Palm Beach County. . . . 

“Florida is a state of choice,” said Thalius Hecksher, global development chief for Apex Fund Services, who moved many of his operations to Palm Beach. “It’s organically grown. There’s no need to drag people down here. It’s a zero-income-tax jurisdiction.” . . . . 

But there’s no state income tax in the Sunshine State. Compare that to New York, where the state and local governments took $14.71 of every $100 earned in 2010, according to state records. . . . 

“In our industry, the people we’re talking about are $1 million-a-year earners. So when you’re talking about tax rates, it’s more meaningful.” . . . .

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Media giving Obama softball questions

A link to a video with Kirsten Powers and John Fund is available here.

Kirsten Powers: "I think we need to hire some grown-ups to cover the president. This is not acceptable behavior, and the fact that you have somebody talking about it, I mean, I think he's sort of being critical, but he's telling us that these people are incapable of covering the president."

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Updates on the battle over more gun control laws

Obama claims that he is the one who wants to compromise, not Republicans.

President Obama is suggesting that House Republicans on the issue of gun control appear neither willing to work with him nor inclined to listen to the American public on the issue.

“The House Republican majority is made up mostly of members who are in sharply gerrymandered districts that are very safely Republican and may not feel compelled to pay attention to broad-based public opinion, because what they're really concerned about is the opinions of their specific Republican constituencies,” the president said in an interview with The New Republic. . . .

Meanwhile, the media covers demonstrations over guns by only mentioning those who oppose guns and ignoring those who support people being able to defend themselves.  Here is a picture from the demonstration this past Saturday.

The Associated Press only had this:

Thousands of people, many holding signs with names of gun violence victims and messages such as "Ban Assault Weapons Now," gathered in front of the Capitol on Saturday for a March on Washington for Gun Control.

Marchers were led by Mayor Vincent Gray and other officials Saturday morning, and the crowd stretched for about two blocks along Constitution Avenue. Police blocked off half the road.

Participants held signs reading "Gun Control Now" and "Stop NRA," among other messages. Other signs were simple and white, with the names of victims of gun violence.

About 100 residents of Newtown were expected at the march. It was organized in response to the December shooting there that killed 20 first-graders and six teachers. . . . .

Senator Feinstein admits the obvious.

The Democrat who's introduced an assault weapon ban acknowledges the measure faces an "uphill climb" to pass Congress but says public support is on her side. . . .

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Celia Bigelow with American Majority Action explains the benefit of an AR-15 for self-defense to Piers Morgan

MORGAN: Explain to me why you believe you need an AR-15 style assault rifle. 

CELIA BIGELOW, DIR. OF CAMPUS ACTION, AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION: Well, I personally bought one for self defense. One, they're lightweight. They're quite accurate. I can shoot them much more accurately than a handgun or a shotgun.
And three, these -- I'm going to pull a David Gregory right here and I can hold up my 30-round magazine right here, because it's actually legal in Virginia. But I want a gun that can hold a lot of ammo because if I'm faced with an intruder or multiple intruders that come into my home, I want to make sure I have enough ammo to get the job done, especially if they're armed.
So I want -- they essentially serve as an insurance mechanism to make sure that I have enough rounds, that if multiple intruders come in and they're armed, I don't have to take the time to reload.

The interview provides an example of someone using an AR-15 for self-defense.  Here is another case that just occurred.

This week, two students at the Rochester Institute of Technology in upstate New York used an “assault rifle” that may soon be banned by law to frighten away armed burglars who had broken into their home.
Local station ABC 13 reports that the students, Christopher Boise and Raymond (no last name given) were awakened in the wee hours Tuesday morning to noises coming from the basement.
Boise got up to investigate and found two men, one with a gun pointed at him, at the bottom of the stairs in the lower level of his apartment.
Hearing Boise’s cry of alarm, Raymond instinctively went for his AR-15 rifle, which he kept legally for self-defense.
When the men came to Raymond’s door, they saw the barrel of his gun at the ready and fled immediately.
“Nothing was taken and no shots were fired,” the station reports.
Police officials confirmed that the gun was legal and Raymond had acted rightly in protecting his property. . . . 

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When regulations go completely off track: government tries to stop a simple birthday party from being held on a farm

You can also watch the video here.

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Some notes on the 2014 Senate races

Several Democratic Senators have announced that they aren't going to run for re-election in 2014.  With the Republicans having to pick up six seats to control the Senate, here are two thoughts:

In the last decade, only three Democratic incumbents have lost reelection: South Dakota’s Tom Daschle in 2004, along with as Wisconsin’s Russ Feingold and Arkansas’ Blanche Lincoln in 2010. . . . .

and

“The GOP has to gain six seats to take control, and the post-World War II average for ‘sixth-year itch’ midterms is that the opposition party gains six seats,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who handicaps Senate races. “Can the party hit the average?”

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A note on police preferring semi-autos

Key: the same points that make that semi-auto valuable for the police also make them valuable for civilians to use.  This brief discussion was written up by Don Kates.

AMERICAN POLICE SEMI-AUTOS.
   From the 1960s American police switched to semo-autos. Today this is well-nigh universal but I remember how astonished I was sometime in the 1960s when I saw a Monrovia, CA officer carrying a 1911A1.
   Part of the changeover from revolvers came in the ‘60s when increasing violent crime fueled an increasing recognition of how inadequate the .38 special was as a man stopper. Also of great import was the manufacture of the Glock whose simplicity of operation was very attractive to police hierarchies inter alia because it resembled the revolver’s simplicity.
   Today virtually all American police carry semi-autos, generally Glocks but some also with the S&W Sigma, a Glock knock off which I prefer to the Glock.
It is notable that police overwhelmingly favor weapons with 14 or more shots. Civilians reasonably ask, if cops (who often patrol in pairs) need that many rounds why civilians should not be so equipped also?
   Most police weapons are in 9 mm. parabellum though many are in .40 caliber. As to stopping power, Col. Martin Fackler, MD, an experienced military surgeon who headed the Armed Services' Wound Balistics Institute believes that no handgun is a reliable man stopper. Note an endlessly repeated error: while the evidence is clear that the .38 sp and the 9mm. are inadequate, that does  NOT prove larger caliber handguns will suffice.

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More on that 5th grade girl who was brutalized by the public school for taking a paper "gun" to school

It is a real tragedy to have this young girl carrying a piece of paper (see below) is being taunted as "murderer" by her fellow students.  Is it necessary to do a search of the girl in front of her class because they want to see if she were carrying real weapons?  Seriously?  Here is a picture of the dangerous piece of paper that young 5th grade student Melody Valentin brought to school.

From FoxNews.com:

The School District of Philadelphia is defending its decision to scold and search an elementary school student who pulled out a paper gun in class.
A district spokesman said the school acted swiftly and appropriately when 5th grade student Melody Valentin allegedly told classmates she had a handgun on her, MyFoxPhilly.com reported.
Melody and her mother, Dianna Kelly, deny she ever used the word “handgun.”
According to Kelly, Melody realized she had the paper gun with her and put it on her desk while preparing to throw it away. Melody’s grandfather, a marine specializing in firearms reportedly gave it to her the day before.
A classmate spotted the piece of paper and contacted administrators.
"He yelled at me and said I shouldn't have brought the gun to school and I kept telling him it was a paper gun but he wouldn't listen," Melody told MyFoxPhilly.com. . . .

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Did government pressure cause Boeing to use a lower quality company to make batteries?

Did government corruption force Boeing to use a component that was not as high of a quality product as it would want in the new 787?  This quote from 2008 seems pretty old to imply anything about a newly released plane, but the NY Times still sees a link.

A former Boeing executive confirmed this when we spoke this week. After asking not to be named because of the diplomatic fragility of the topic, he said: “Let me put it this way: we knew the Japanese market would be Boeing’s in return for our selecting these Japanese partners. It was a silent understanding, and there was nothing in writing.” He added that Boeing’s Japanese suppliers had received low-interest loans from the Japanese government repayable only out of future profits. 

Although the Japanese airlines and suppliers are independent companies, “in Japan there’s a unique relationship between the airlines, the suppliers and the government,” according to the former Boeing official. “It’s cultural. The officials all went to the same schools and have close personal relationships. The government supported the airlines and the industries and they developed together. The government has enormous influence. They all work together.” 

As a Boeing vice president and former Boeing Japan president, Nicole Piasecki, told the company magazine in 2008: “These aren’t just relationships with people in business. The Japanese government is a powerful and important part of all economic activity and industrial development. So part of relationship building is negotiating these two important spheres of influence in Japan and understanding it’s all tied together.” 

Mr. Aboulafia agreed that Japan was unique. “This is the way things used to be in the days before free trade,” he said. “Japan is the last unreconstructed believer in industrial policy writ large.” . . . .

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False media claims that Fox News was trying to hide discussions on gun control

Gabe Sherman at New York magazine created quite a stir when he wrote that Fox News said that "it is too soon to talk the politics of gun control" the day of the Newtown elementary school attack.  

Much was being made online Monday about a decision by Fox News Channel to avoid discussion of gun control in the wake of multiple killings at a Connecticut elementary school. An e-mail “edict,” as some have put it, from a Fox News executive who didn’t want the topic discussed over the weekend has even been making the rounds. 

One problem with that narrative, though: Fox News insiders say it isn’t true and that, in fact, both sides of the gun-control debate were represented many times throughout the weekend’s programming. . . .

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Amazon is asking if people are interested in an audio version of my forthcoming book

If you might be interested in an audio version of my forthcoming book on the impact of the Obama administration (everything from health care, the economy, gun control, regulation, taxes), please let them know.  I often get requests for an audio version of my book, but here is your chance to help make sure that you get it.  If you are interested, please go here and click where it says: Looking for the Audiobook Edition?

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Background checks have "no impact," "zero" costs on law-abiding?

No costs?  Seriously? There are delays for the even the checks that aren't eventually denied, simply because many take up to three days to process.  Virtually all the background check denials are also mistakes and thus add weeks or months before people are able to obtain guns for self defense.  For most people this delay will simply be an inconvenience, but for some it will make the crucial difference over their safety.  Vice President Joe Biden has this claim:

“There should be universal background checks, universal background checks,” Biden said. “It in no way impacts upon someone’s ability under the Constitution to own a gun. Zero, zero. It’s enforcing a law – some folks say, ‘Look, just enforce the laws that are on the books.’ Well, the first step to do that is put a law on the books that says all those folks that have adjudicated incapable of owning a gun under the law, make sure we have access to their names. That’s why there is a need for universal background checks.” . . .

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Wisconsin sheriff urges citizens to arm themselves

It is difficult for me to understand how recognizing that police won't immediately be there when a victim is facing a criminal is controversial.  Nor is it clear why advising that the most effective way to defend themselves when they face a criminal is with a gun is also controversial.  But surely there is a huge difference between self-defense a criminal who is attacking a person and vigilantism?  From Fox News:

A sheriff who released a radio ad urging Milwaukee-area residents to learn to handle firearms so they can defend themselves while waiting for police said Friday that law enforcement cutbacks have changed the way police can respond to crime. 

In the 30-second commercial, Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke Jr. says personal safety is no longer a spectator sport. 

"I need you in the game," he says. 

"With officers laid off and furloughed, simply calling 911 and waiting is no longer your best option," he adds. "You can beg for mercy from a violent criminal, hide under the bed, or you can fight back. ... Consider taking a certified safety course in handling a firearm so you can defend yourself until we get there." 

The ad has generated sharp criticism from other area officials and anti-violence advocates. The president of the Milwaukee Deputy Sheriffs' Association, Roy Felber, said it sounds like a call to vigilantism. . . .

A video of his appearance on Fox is available here.
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has this discussion:

Milwaukee County Sheriff David A. Clarke Jr. set off alarm bells Friday with a radio spot some view as a call for citizens to arm themselves.
In the radio ad, Clarke tells residents personal safety isn't a spectator sport anymore, and that "I need you in the game."
"With officers laid off and furloughed, simply calling 911 and waiting is no longer your best option," Clarke intones.
"You could beg for mercy from a violent criminal, hide under the bed, or you can fight back."
Clarke urges listeners to take a firearm safety course and handle a firearm "so you can defend yourself until we get there."
"You have a duty to protect yourself and your family. We're partners now. Can I count on you?"
The spot aired at least once - during the last hour of the Mark Belling show on WISN-AM (1130) on Thursday. Clarke spokeswoman Fran McLaughlin posted it to the department website on Friday. She said she did not know where else or how often the spot would be broadcast, or how much the department spent to air it.
Clarke has served as lightning rod before, most recently when he called for schools to arm teachers after the Newtown, Conn., massacre of 20 children and six adults at an elementary school. News of the sheriff's gun ad quickly generated feedback. . . . .

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Obama will focus on push for Background checks

As I have predicted, Obama is focusing on the so-called "universal" background checks.  Obama may have decided on this strategy because of polls, but I think that the polls on expanding background checks are essentially worthless because they are based on the false information being put out by the Obama administration.  The question is whether correct information can be provided on this issue to correct this misinformation.

President Barack Obama unveiled a broad array of new gun control proposals last week, but already his administration has narrowed the main force of their effort behind just one: universal background checks. 

That was the message Vice President Joe Biden effectively delivered here Friday as he launched the administration’s road campaign in support of the new restrictions developed in the wake of the school massacre at Newtown, Conn. . . . 

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Can anyone really take Media Matters seriously?: Their defense of the claim that 40 percent of guns are sold without background checks

Media Matters is at it again, this time they are attacking an op-ed that I had at National Review and they defend the claim that 40 percent of guns are sold without background checks.  In their defense, they point to Politifact as saying that the "40 percent" statistic is "Mostly True."  Yet, Media Matters can't even get that quite right as Politifact says that the claim is "half true."   Of course, Politifact doesn't understand the issues being debated.  Glenn Kessler at the Washington Post is no where as critical as I would like, but he still gives Obama's use of the "40 percent" claim three out of a possible four Pinocchios.  Kessler notes:

we have documented that (a) the survey numbers are about two decades old, so they include purchases that predate any background checks; (b) the survey sample is rather small; and (c) the results are significantly different when adjusted for “purchases” or “sales” — the phrasing used by the president. . . .  

The key point though is that even the 36 percent number in the original study that Obama cites (not the 40 percent that he rounds it up to) was for all transfers, not just guns sold.  

UPDATE:  Here is the way I described this in April 9, 2013:

Start with the 40 percent figure. That number comes from a very small study covering purchases during 1991 to 1994. Not only is that two decades-old data, but it covered sales before the federal Brady Act took effect on February 28, 1994. The act required federally licensed dealers to perform background checks. 

And what's more, Mr. Obama conveniently forgets that the researchers gave this number (well, actually 36%, not his rounding up to 40%) for all transfers, not just for guns sold. Most significantly, the vast majority of these transfers involved within-family inheritances and gifts. 

Counting only guns that were sold gives a very different perspective, with only 14 percent not actually going through federally licensed dealers. But even that is much too high as there were biases in the survey. For example, two-thirds of federally licensed dealers at the time were so-called “kitchen table” dealers who sold gun out of their homes and most buyers surveyed were likely unaware these individuals were indeed licensed. 

By the way, that survey also found that all gun-show sales went through federally licensed dealers. If President Obama really trusts the study, he should stop raging about the “gun show loophole.” . . .

I have made similar points earlier, such as the article that Media Matters attacks in National Review.

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Democrats put political pressure on banks to sever ties with gun makers

Democrats are trying to drive gun makers out of business by making it financially more costly for them to do business.  This strikes me as pretty lawless.

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, moving to take a lead role in the gun control debate, is turning up the pressure on banks that do business with firearms manufacturers. 

Emanuel is sending letters to two major financial institutions, TD Bank and Bank of America, which offer lines of credit to gun makers suggesting that they stop lending money to the manufacturers if they don’t come out for new gun restrictions. . . . .

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Gun smuggling in Australia, apparently the criminals are still obtaining guns

Before I had posted a note that legal guns in Australia had returned to pre-buyback levels.  Well, it turns out that the types of guns that were banned are also arriving in significant quantities. From the Sydney Morning Herald.

. . . About 12 to 14 months ago, police noticed it had become much easier to obtain an illegal handgun in Sydney than it had in the past. 

The Commander of the Firearms and Organised Crime Squad, Ken Finch, says, at one stage, there was even a ''glut'' in illegal arms driving down prices on the black market.
Hard work by his squad, including a state-wide audit of every licensed firearm owner and significant busts of importation syndicates, helped to push the price back up to about $15,000, yet he says there are still far too many illegal handguns available. 

''Our intel, particularly during last year … indicated there are a lot of handguns out there,'' Detective Superintendent Finch says. ''There seemed to be an inordinate number come on to the market very quickly.'' 

An analysis carried out by police found handguns were used in 88 per cent of gun crimes in the past 12 months. For public-place shootings, that increased to 94 per cent. 

At the same time, of the 632 firearms stolen from legal gun owners in NSW over the past year, only 10 per cent were handguns, indicating the guns are coming onto the market by other means. 

Last March, three people were charged after Australian and German detectives smashed an international gun-smuggling syndicate that was being run, in part, from a suburban southern Sydney post office. 

It is alleged up to 300 Glock pistols were imported over 12 months through the postal system. 

A German gun dealer had been duped by the trio, who purported to be authorised gun buyers and ordered individual parts in separate packages and assembled them using instructions found on the internet. 

While most of the guns were recovered by police, at least seven have been used in drive-by incidents in Sydney. . . .

Thanks to William Blake for the link.

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Geithner facing renewed corruption charges from 2007

Banks would have been willing to pay a huge amount of money for this information.

In the summer of 2007, as storm clouds gathered over the world's financial system, then-New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner allegedly informed the Bank of America and other banks about the possibility the U.S. central bank would lower one of its critical interest rates, according to a senior Fed official. 

Jeffrey Lacker, the head of the Richmond Fed, originally raised the allegation during a Fed conference call in August 2007, and he stuck to his 5-year-old claim against the current U.S. treasury secretary in a statement provided to Reuters on Friday. 

"From conversations I had prior to the video conference call on August 16, 2007, I was aware of discussions among a few large banks about borrowing from their discount windows to support the asset backed commercial paper market," Lacker said in the statement. "My understanding was that (New York Fed) President Geithner had discussed a reduction in the discount rate with these banks in connection with these initiatives." 

According to transcripts of the call released by the Fed on Friday, Geithner at the time denied that banks knew the Fed was considering cutting the discount rate. The Fed regularly releases transcripts of its policy meetings with a five-year lag. . . . 

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Interview this morning on WMAL to discuss the various gun control measures being pushed through congress

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Biden gives his expert advice on what weapons to use for protection after an earthquake

Do semi-automatic rifles have advantages over shotguns for self protection?  Sure, for example, that you can fire more shots before you have to reload.  They are also better at longer ranges than shotguns.  AR-15s also don't have that much of recoil, which might be particularly important for smaller women.  But do shotguns also have their advantages?  Sure.  It just seems foolish to categorically say that one is clearly better than the other for self defense.

"[G]uess what? A shotgun will keep you a lot safer, a double-barrel shotgun, than an assault weapon in someone's hands, who doesn't know how to used it, even one who does know how to use it. You know. It's harder to use an assault weapon to hit something than a shotgun, OK. So you want to keep people away during an earthquake, buy some shotgun shells," Biden was responding to a question that was raised during a Google Plus Hangout about reducing gun violence. . . .

The remarkable point here is that the media reports Biden's advice without asking critics whether it makes any sense.



Cops have been less safe after the assault weapon ban ended?  Biden claims that there was a large benefit from these laws for police officer safety.  Yet, it is pretty hard to look at this chart and see any evidence that police officer deaths from rifles were impacted beneficially by the assault weapon ban.  Certainly not a large benefit as Biden claims.  Deaths from handguns seems to have fallen after 1994, but there was no increase in that either after 2004.  

Data sources

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/leoka/2011/tables/table-27

http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/killed/2007/data/table_27.html

http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/killed/2004/table28.htm

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/leoka/1998

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Despite not nominating many judges, Obama will soon give Democrats large majorities among judges

With four years of Democratic nominees still to come, the courts are evenly divided.

the percentage of Republican-appointed circuit court judges only dropped from 61.3 percent to 51.8 percent, and the percentage of Republican-appointed district court judges only dropped from 58.6 percent to 53.6 percent . . . .

The news article that this is from emphasizes that Republicans still control a majority of judges on the courts, though they have a minority of the much more important Appeals Court judges.  Obama could easily appoint more than 200 more of the 865 district and appeals court judges over the next four years.  The information from the left wing Alliance for Justice that the above article in the Washington Times relied on is available here.

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Assertions by gun control advocates on what their proposals will do

Democratic Congressman Mike Thompson from North Carolina has some claims in the Wall Street Journal this week.

Many people on both sides also agree that everyone who buys a firearm should go through a comprehensive background check. No one wants convicted criminals or people with a history of dangerous mental illness to have access to guns. Yet our laws allow people to buy firearms privately or at some gun shows without going through a background check, and many states remain deficient in transferring important records to the federal database used to conduct background checks on gun buyers. This needs to change. . . .

The problems with background check claims is available here.

A majority of Americans also agree (according to a Pew poll released this month) that assault magazines have no place in our society. These magazines hold more than 10 rounds and allow a shooter to inflict mass damage in a short period of time without reloading. Banning them will save lives. . . .

We tried the ban during the 1994 to 2004 Assault Weapon Ban and yet there didn't seem to be any beneficial effect from the ban nor was their a great benefit the longer the ban was in effected.  Even the research that Feinstein cites doesn't support her conclusion.

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Wheelchair bound veteran uses gun to stop home invasion

From Athens, Georgia:

Authorities say a U.S. Army veteran who uses a wheelchair wielded a pistol to run off a man who broke into his home near Athens. 

The Athens Banner-Herald reports (http://bit.ly/11Wcnjg) that 53-year-old Mark Sikes was in bed at his home in western Clarke County around 1 p.m. Wednesday, when someone kicked in his front door. 

Sikes said he reached into his night stand and grabbed his pistol. He said he then pointed the gun at the intruder and and told him he "better get the hell out." 

Sikes said the young man "flew like a bat" and is lucky that he wasn't killed by the veteran. . . .

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Something to consider in the new federal push for gun registration

Presumably there are other crimes in DC that could have been stopped if it wasn't so difficult to legally obtain a gun.  This might be one person who wasn't stopped by the law and because he still got a gun he was able to save a young boy's life.  I would like to know this good samaritan's income. I have pointed out how registration doesn't help reduce crime, but, with the push for federal gun registration, just something to consider.

. . . The incident unfolded Sunday afternoon, after three pit bulls attacked an 11-year-old boy as he rode his bicycle through the Brightwood neighborhood of Northwest, according to a police report. 

When the man, a neighbor, saw the boy being mauled by the dogs, he went inside his home and got a gun. The man killed one of the dogs. The gunfire attracted the attention of a police officer in the area near Eighth and Sheridan streets, where the attack occurred. The officer responded and shot the other two pit bulls as they continued to attack the boy. 

The police report, which did not identify any of the people involved, said the boy suffered severe lacerations. The Washington Post, which first reported the details of the shooting, quoted the boy’s uncle as saying the boy was also shot in the foot. . . . 

While public opinion might be supportive of the man’s actions, he could still face significant charges depending on the outcome of the investigation, criminal defense attorney Daniel Gross said. . . . 

The man could face a host of charges depending on the specifics of the case, including whether the gun used is a registered firearm that the man was legally permitted to own, Mr. Gross said. Possession of an unregistered firearm or ammunition is punishable by up to one year in prison and a $1,000 fine, and determining whether the man legally possessed the gun used will likely have greater bearing on the way the case is handled, Mr. Gross said. . . . .

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New Piece at National Review Online: "The ‘40 Percent’ Myth: The figure gun-control advocates are throwing around is false."

My new piece starts this way:

Gun-control advocates have recently been throwing around an impressive new number. President Obama used it last Wednesday, claiming: “as many as 40 percent of guns are purchased without a background check.” Vice President Biden and everyone from the New York Times to the Wall Street Journal to USA Today repeatedly use it. That “fact” provided the principal support for his first announced gun-control proposal, “universal background checks.” But unless you include family inheritances and gifts as “purchases,” it is simply false. 

The Brady Act background checks currently prevent someone who buys from a federally licensed dealer from buying a gun if he has a felony, or in many cases a misdemeanor conviction, or has been involuntarily committed for mental illness. Prior to Brady, federal law merely required that people sign a statement stating that they did not have a criminal record or a history of mental problems under threat of perjury. Obama’s 40 percent claim makes it look like a lot of gun buyers are avoiding these checks. . . .

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"Breaking down assault weapon misconceptions"

Very useful discussion here that explains aspects of so-called assault weapons.

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More nutty zero tolerance at schools, the case of the paper gun

The public school officials don't feel that it is necessary to explain their actions to the public and refuse to return calls from the media, but somehow they think that it is OK to publicly humiliate this young girl.  The picture of the very sad girl in the story tells it all.

A Philadelphia elementary school student was scolded and searched by administrators in front of her entire class after she pulled out a paper gun in class last week, according to her mother. 

Melody Valentin's mother, Dianna Kelly, tells Fox 29 that school officials went too far when they reportedly punished her daughter for pulling out the gun, which she says looks like a folded sheet of paper. 

Fox 29 reports that one of the fifth grader's classmates reportedly saw the paper gun and notified administrators as she was going to throw it away. 

"He yelled at me and said I shouldn't have brought the gun to school and I kept telling him it was a paper gun but he wouldn't listen," Melody tells Fox 29. 

Kelly says school staff searched her daughter while other students watched. 

The gun was made by Melody's grandfather, according to Kelly, who says her daughter has suffered nightmares as a result of the incident. . . .

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Suzanna Hupp on Piers Morgan

Just as an aside, there are two OECD countries that have higher murder rates than the US does.  I would also not have conceded that we have more guns per capita than other countries.  Finally, it is wrong to think of there being some representative US murder rate.  78 percent of US counties have zero murders in any given year.

Piers' claims about Australia are simply false.

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The CBS "News" political director summarizes Obama's "go for the throat" against GOP strategy

Why do so many people in the media have to be such openly partisan cheerleaders for Obama and the Democrats?  Dickerson sure comes across as advocating this approach for Obama.  From Fox News:

"Obama's only remaining option is to pulverize," Dickerson said. He wrote that Obama's attempt to build a "post-partisan" Washington didn't work, and in his second term Obama has the chance to "hasten the demise of the old order" of the GOP by "increasing the political cost of having the GOP coalition defined by Second Amendment absolutists, climate science deniers, supporters of 'self-deportation' and the pure no-tax wing." . . . .

I am sure that Tim Groseclose would have something to add to this. 

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Jacob Sullum on "The Threat Posed by Gun Magazine Limits"

Jacob has an interesting piece here on the constitutionality of the new New York State gun laws.

as Gov. Andrew Cuomo put it last week, "Nobody needs 10 bullets to kill a deer."  

That might count as an argument if the right to keep and bear arms were all about killing deer. But as the Supreme Court has recognized, the Second Amendment is also about defense against individual aggressors, foreign invaders, and tyrannical government.  

Toward those ends, the Court said, the Second Amendment guarantees the right to own weapons "in common use for lawful purposes," which clearly include guns capable of firing more than 10 rounds (and certainly more than seven) without reloading. The Glock 17, one of the most popular handguns in America, comes with a 17-round magazine. One of the most popular rifles, the AR-15 (a style made by several manufacturers), comes with a 30-round magazine.  

Measured by what people actually buy and use, magazines that hold more than 10 rounds are hardly outliers. In fact, there are tens (if not hundreds) of millions already in circulation, which is one reason new limits cannot reasonably be expected to have much of an impact on people determined to commit mass murder. . . .

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Obama very happy "men with guns" are protecting his daughters

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Wait a second here. Weren't benefits such as benefits such as preventive care supposed to lower health insurance costs?

So much for Obamacare controlling health care costs.

While the most sweeping provisions of the health care overhaul have not yet gone into effect, plenty of Americans will still be paying higher insurance premiums this year -- as insurance companies try to preemptively cover the cost of a tax increase included in President Obama's Affordable Care Act. 

That tax doesn't take effect until next year, when other major provisions like the so-called "individual mandate" and insurance subsidies also kick in. But that hasn't stopped insurance companies from charging higher premiums this year to cover the hike, as well as the cost of ObamaCare benefits such as free birth control and preventive care. 

Premiums for individuals and small businesses are projected to increase due to the tax by roughly 2 percent this year and by as much as 3.7 percent in 2023, according to a widely cited analysis by the insurance industry. 

Officials will argue about who is to blame for the hike -- insurance companies for sticking customers with the cost, or the government for imposing the industry tax hike in the first place. But the projected increases are the latest sign that Americans, in exchange for expanding and strengthening insurance coverage, will in many cases be paying more.  . . .

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NPR misses major point on "Mental Health Gun Laws Unlikely To Reduce Shootings"

NPR has this to say about the ability to predict the likelihood of violence by the mentally ill.

Researchers say that one issue with mental health laws like New York's is that they compel mental health professionals to report thousands of people who aren't at all likely to shot someone. 

Barry Rosenfeld is psychology professor at Fordham University in The Bronx: "With these laws we are destined to cast a very large net that will probably restrict a lot of people's behavior unnecessarily, and may be we will prevent and incident or two, I hope." . . .

"an accurate assessment of the likelihood of future violence is virtually impossible." 

"The biggest risk for gun violence is possession of a gun," says Hoge. "And there's no evidence that the mentally ill possess guns or commit gun violence at any greater rate than the normal population." 

So you would think that the conclusion of the piece would be that we shouldn't be taking away people's guns unless it is somewhat clear that someone will engage in violence, right?  No, NPR concludes that the safe way to stop these attacks is to take away guns. The problem is that taking away people's guns seems unlikely to solve the problem even if the violent people could be identified.  The reason?  These killers often are planning their attacks months or even more than a year in advance and it is very hard to stop someone who is willing to plan that far in advance from getting a gun.  So should we just lock up people who we think are might be violent?  Apparently, not according to NPR, but gun control is still considered a good option.

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Number of Concealed Handgun Permits in New Mexico Increases

With its very high fee for the permits and the 15-hour training requirement, New Mexico is one of the most difficult right-to-carry states to get a concealed handgun permit.  Still, while the total number of permits is low, there has been a substantial increase in the number of permits.  Just since 2009, there has been a 50 percent increase in permits statewide.  From the Las Cruces Sun-News:

New Mexico
2007: 7,000
2009: 16,708
2012: 25,109
— Source: New Mexico Department of Public Safety

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My appearance on C-SPAN's Washington Journal to discuss Obama's gun control proposals

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Gun control group cuts out key parts of Democratic Congressman's video to create false impression

First please watch this campaign video by Democratic Congressman John Barrow (Georgia).


Now see how the "Coalition to Stop Gun Violence" doctored his video and cut out very important parts of it to create a quite different impression.


Fox News has a discussion of the editing.

But the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence on Friday defended the video, which includes the message "Shame on you, Congressman John Barrow" and urges him to stop taking "NRA blood money."  

"We're not here to run campaign ads for John Barrow. We're not his PR team," group spokesman Ladd Everitt told FoxNews.com.  

Asked about the omission of the line about stopping a lynching, Everitt said he was "unable to confirm" Barrow's claim about his grandfather. . . .

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Public School "tells Mother to get Daughter Breast Reduction after Harassment"

If the daughter is supposed to get her breasts reduced so that the harassment can be stopped, what is the recommendation for the boy who has severe scars from his surgery?  This extreme recommendation seems to indicate that the school is admitting defeat.  From Moline Acres, Missouri:

. . . Tammie Jackson says her daughter Gabrielle is being sexually harassed because of her large breasts at Central Middle School in Moline Acres. She says the sixth grader has been dealing with bullying since last semester. 

Jackson called the Riverview Gardens School District to complain and was shocked by what she was told. 

“It makes me feel like now you are telling me it’s my fault, it’s God’s fault the way he made her. The lady on the phone said they could transfer my daughter and said her boobs were so large she will always get teased. And the only suggestion she had for me is to have my daughter get a breast reduction,” said Jackson. 

FOX 2 stopped by the school district for a response and we’re told they’re working to counsel students to resolve the bullying issue. As for the claims about the surgery, we’re told they are still looking into it. 

Jackson also says her 9-year-old son Elijah has bullying issues. He has a rare heart condition and she says kids make fun of his surgical scars, causing him to make suicidal comments. . . .

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Speculating about why politicians push more more gun control

Allysia Finley has this interesting take on why politicians push more gun control.

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Maybe Americans really do understand that more guns mean less crime

From Fox News:

Nearly twice as many voters say there would be less violent crime if more law-abiding Americans owned guns, than if guns were banned.   

In addition, while American voters generally favor strengthening gun laws, 71 percent do not think tougher laws can stop shootings like the one last month in Newtown, Connecticut.  Some 22 percent say new laws can prevent the next Sandy Hook.
These are just some of the findings from a Fox News poll released Friday. 

Majorities of gun owners (81 percent), non-gun owners (58 percent), Democrats (58 percent), independents (72 percent) and Republicans (85 percent) say the people who do these kinds of things “will always find the guns” to commit violent acts. . . .

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What might be interesting is a picture that showed the ratio of news coverage to deaths

From US News available here.

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"Voters pessimistic as Obama prepares for second inauguration"

Almost four years into a "recovery" and Americans are still uncertain about their economic future?

President Obama is entering his second term with many of the nation’s voters still pessimistic or unsure about their economic prospects, a new poll for The Hill has found. . . . 

Sixty percent say they do not expect to make major economic strides during Obama’s second term, compared to just 38 percent who expect to be better off in 2016.  

Despite the lingering pessimism about the trajectory of the nation’s economy, the poll does offer a silver lining for the president as he prepares to take the oath of office again — by a 2-to-1 margin, voters blame Congress, instead of him, for the nation’s woes. 

Fifty percent of those polled blamed Congress the most, compared to just 25 percent placing blame squarely at the feet of Obama. Another 10 percent apiece blamed voters and the media the most. . . .

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