My interview at National Review on my new book "At the Brink" is available here

My interview at National Review starts this way:

After the defeat of the Manchin-Toomey background-check bill, and the subsequent demonization of the Senate, Senators Manchin and Toomey are reportedly back at work on bipartisan legislation addressing gun control. John R. Lott, author of the new book At the Brink, who has been researching gun policy for decades, talks about the state of the debate with National Review Online’s Kathryn Jean Lopez. 

KATHRYN JEAN LOPEZ: Gabby Giffords has accused the Senate of being in the grips of the gun lobby. Is there another explanation for the defeat of the Manchin-Toomey bill? 

JOHN R. LOTT: Yes, there is. The politicians were simply representing the voters in their districts. 

The accusation that politicians were attempting to please the gun lobby at the expense of their constituents, which is based on the oft-repeated assertion that 80 to 90 percent of the public say they favor background checks, is simply not credible. The survey questions on which this statistic is based proved nothing more than that respondents wished to disarm criminals. The questions posed were about a hypothetical, idealized system of background checks, not about the actual legislation facing Congress. . . .

 The rest of the interview is available here.

Read More

While Democrats are claiming that gun control is hurting Republicans, how come Obama is so far underwater on the issue?

I have been very skeptical of the claims that Republicans have been hurt by their opposition to the Senate gun control bill.  Yet, it is curious that Obama's low approval rating on the gun issue isn't getting similar attention.  From Politico:

On gun policy, some 52 percent disapprove of his approach, while 41 percent approve. That could be due in part to the loss in the Senate of the gun control proposal he pushed for expanded background checks for gun buyers. . . .

BTW, it is interesting to see that Obama's handling of immigration is also underwater.

Compare the media coverage with Senator Kelly Ayotte and her vote on guns with the media coverage with Obama's low standing on the gun issue.  This also from Politico:

Pro-gun control activists, who attended the meeting, were incensed. Security brushed aside two women who approached Ayotte and demanded to speak with the first-term Republican about her vote against expanded background checks for commercial gun sales, underscoring the lingering controversy that continues to hover over the New Hampshire senator. . . . 

The emotional fight threatens to transform Ayotte — a young conservative Republican woman whose star is on the rise — into a polarizing figure back home on a contentious issue. Instead of taking up the banner of gun rights, Ayotte is seeking a lower profile on the subject in a state where she’s become the last Republican in the all-female congressional delegation. 

“It hurts her,” said Kathy Sullivan, a longtime Democratic operative and former head of the state party here. “Elections are won in New Hampshire with the vote of independents, particularly independent women. Independent women will not favor a candidate who does not believe in background checks. Will it be the only issue? No, but it will be an issue.” . . .

Read More

New PoliceOne's Gun Policy & Law Enforcement Survey: Police and their views on gun control

The new PoliceOne.com survey of police and their views on gun control is available here (article is here).  PoliceOne has about 450,000 members when the survey was done.  Here is information on previous surveys as well as a piece that I wrote for the WSJ.com.

A full 86 percent feel that casualties would have been reduced or avoided in recent tragedies like Newtown and Aurora if a legally-armed citizen was present (casualties reduced: 80 percent; avoided altogether: 60 percent). . . .
In addition, the survey asked, “On a scale of one to five — one being low and five being high — how important do you think legally-armed citizens are to reducing crime rates overall?”
Three quarters of you (75 percent) answered either four or five, with more than 50 percent answering five. . . .

I find myself in virtually complete agreement with the police in answering this survey.  I am not a big fan of open carry, but I am of concealed handguns.  I agree with them on the efficacy of gun buybacks, bans on ammunition magazines that hold more 10 rounds, national databases on gun ownership, and background checks.  

The answers to question #20 are extremely important: 77 percent of officers think that private gun ownership is either extremely or very important in reducing crime.  

Question #19 shows 91 percent support right-to-carry concealed carry with a background check.

Read More

As people learn more about the proposed gun laws, they are less supportive

Is the drop in support for gun control since shortly after Newtown due to memories fading or that people learn more about the legislation?  The media and Democrats always claim it is the former, but it isn't obvious how they can be certain about that.  Note for example how Democrats in New York and elsewhere feel the need to push through regulations before people even have a chance to read the legislation.  They seem to fear people being able to read the gun control bills.  From CBS News:

Currently, support for stricter gun control laws stands at 47 percent today, down from a high of 57 percent just after the shootings. Thirty-nine percent want those laws kept as they are, and another 11 percent want them made less strict. . . .

Indeed, if you look at the CBS News poll when it was done at other times, support for more gun control has only been lower at one other point during the previous six polls.

An earlier CNN also showed a similar drop.  

Although a majority of Americans favored major restrictions on guns or an outright ban in the wake of the shootings in Newtown, Connecticut, when a heavily armed gunman killed 20 young students and six adults, a new CNN/ORC International survey indicates that support has tumbled to just 43%, as more time has passed since that December tragedy. . . .

Read More

Why the General Social Survey is gun control advocates favorite survey

The New York Times cites the General Social Survey to claim that the gun ownership rate is low and falling.  

It is an impressive drop, and many have used it to claim that while gun sales have increased, the increase has taken the form of more guns being owned by a smaller and smaller number of people.  CNN states it this way:

A decreasing number of American gun owners own two-thirds of the nation's guns and as many as one-third of the guns on the planet -- even though they account for less than 1% of the world's population, according to a CNN analysis of gun ownership data. 

The data, collected by the Injury Prevention Journal, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the General Social Survey and population figures from the U.S. Census Bureau, found that the number of U.S. households with guns has declined, but current gun owners are gathering more guns. . . .

Yet, the GSS survey shows a large drop that you don't see in other surveys.  According to Gallup, in October 2011, they wrote: "At 47%, reported gun ownership is the highest it has been in nearly two decades -- a finding that may be related to Americans' dampened support for gun-control laws."  Here is the Gallup survey data since 1991.

Or take the ABC News/Washington Post Poll

I have been concerned about the GSS survey for some time.  Here is something that I wrote in my 2003 book The Bias Against Guns.

A few years ago, while I was doing research at the University of Chicago, I had lunch with Tom Smith, who is the director of the General Social Survey at the National Opinion Research Center (NORC). This private organization conducts many important national surveys for the government as well as other clients. During lunch Tom mentioned how important he thought the General Social Survey was. He felt the large drop in gun ownership implied by his survey would “make it easier for politicians to do the right thing on guns” and pass more restrictive regulations.  His surveys have traditionally shown one of the lowest gun ownership rates among any of the surveys: for example, almost 20 percentage points lower than recent polling by John Zogby. . . .

Tom Smith is still the director of the GSS.  It is interesting to note that both the JAMA study this week as well as Tom Smith have received funding from the Joyce Foundation, which is well known for its gun control advocacy (or see here).  I am definitely not saying that the Joyce Foundation funding altered their views, but just that Joyce knows the individuals who are on their side of the debate.

Read More

For first time majority of Americans say that the government is threatening their personal rights

It would be nice if there were more yearly observations so that some patterns could be determined here. Presumably the change from June 2000 to November 2001 was a temporary increase due to the 911 attack.  Taking that blip out of the discussion shows a gradual decline from 1995 to 2010.  The big drop after 2010 seems to be an anomaly.  It would be nice to figure out how much of this drop was due to Obama's push on issues such as gun control and his unwillingness to follow the law.  From Pew Research:

As Barack Obama begins his second term in office, trust in the federal government remains mired near a historic low, while frustration with government remains high. And for the first time, a majority of the public says that the federal government threatens their personal rights and freedoms. . . . 

The growing view that the federal government threatens personal rights and freedoms has been led by conservative Republicans. Currently 76% of conservative Republicans say that the federal government threatens their personal rights and freedoms and 54% describe the government as a “major” threat. Three years ago, 62% of conservative Republicans said the government was a threat to their freedom; 47% said it was a major threat. . . .

Read More

Maybe Americans really do understand that more guns mean less crime

From Fox News:

Nearly twice as many voters say there would be less violent crime if more law-abiding Americans owned guns, than if guns were banned.   

In addition, while American voters generally favor strengthening gun laws, 71 percent do not think tougher laws can stop shootings like the one last month in Newtown, Connecticut.  Some 22 percent say new laws can prevent the next Sandy Hook.
These are just some of the findings from a Fox News poll released Friday. 

Majorities of gun owners (81 percent), non-gun owners (58 percent), Democrats (58 percent), independents (72 percent) and Republicans (85 percent) say the people who do these kinds of things “will always find the guns” to commit violent acts. . . .

Read More

"Voters pessimistic as Obama prepares for second inauguration"

Almost four years into a "recovery" and Americans are still uncertain about their economic future?

President Obama is entering his second term with many of the nation’s voters still pessimistic or unsure about their economic prospects, a new poll for The Hill has found. . . . 

Sixty percent say they do not expect to make major economic strides during Obama’s second term, compared to just 38 percent who expect to be better off in 2016.  

Despite the lingering pessimism about the trajectory of the nation’s economy, the poll does offer a silver lining for the president as he prepares to take the oath of office again — by a 2-to-1 margin, voters blame Congress, instead of him, for the nation’s woes. 

Fifty percent of those polled blamed Congress the most, compared to just 25 percent placing blame squarely at the feet of Obama. Another 10 percent apiece blamed voters and the media the most. . . .

Read More

Polling on armed guns in School

Public Policy Polling is a Democratic polling firm.  Given the political importance of this debate, it would be interesting to see if some other national polls have been done.

A Quinnipiac University poll found that Old Dominion voters favor putting an armed police officer at every school, 66 percent to 29 percent.That figure is at odds with national sentiment: Most Americans oppose that idea, which was put forth by the National Rifle Association in the wake of the shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., last month. According to a Public Policy Polling survey released Wednesday, 50 percent of American voters don’t want armed guards in schools, while 41 percent do. . . .

Read More